{"id":2021,"date":"2017-03-21T12:20:31","date_gmt":"2017-03-21T12:20:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityfalcon.com\/blog\/?p=2021"},"modified":"2017-10-05T10:26:56","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T10:26:56","slug":"resolute-forest-product-rfp-its-cyclical-its-out-of-favour-and-34-owned-by-prem-watsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/de\/investments\/resolute-forest-product-rfp-its-cyclical-its-out-of-favour-and-34-owned-by-prem-watsa\/","title":{"rendered":"Resolute Forest Product (RFP): Zyklisch, in Ungnade gefallen, aber 34% im Besitz von Prem Watsa"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>\n.wp-caption {\nmax-width: 100% !important;\n}\n iframe {\nmax-width: 100%; hight: auto;\n}\n<\/style>\n<p><strong><em>Haftungsausschluss: Dies ist ein Gastbeitrag von Michael Wiggins De Oliveira<\/em><em>, und spiegelt nicht die Ansichten von CityFALCON und seinen Stakeholdern wider.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>Resolutes Forstprodukt (RFP)<br \/>\nDatum: 3.10.2017<br \/>\nMarktkapitalisierung: ~ $400m<br \/>\nPreis pro Aktie: $4,50<br \/>\nNettoverschuldung: ~$761m<br \/>\nEV: 1,1 b<\/h4>\n<h2><strong>Idee Zusammenfassung:<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Resolute ist ein diversifiziertes Unternehmen, das Forstprodukte verkauft. Es ist viel Pessimismus eingepreist, aber keine Hoffnung. Nach Jahren der Underperformance sind die Aktion\u00e4re m\u00fcde und verkaufen ohne R\u00fccksicht auf den Preis. Ich glaube, dass sich das Unternehmen in den n\u00e4chsten 24 Monaten, w\u00e4hrend das Unternehmen aus diesem Rohstoffabschwung herauskommt, der Holzprodukte betrifft, zu einer Wende bemerkbar machen wird und dass sich der Aktienkurs anpassen wird, um diese \u201eneu\u201c gefundene Hoffnung widerzuspiegeln. Ich kann es sehen\u00a0<strong>Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial von etwa 50%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2022\" style=\"width: 1119px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2022\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-2022 size-full\" title=\"Resolutes Forstprodukt\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1.png\" alt=\"Resolutes Forstprodukt\" width=\"1109\" height=\"656\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1.png 1109w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-768x454.png 768w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-1024x606.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-945x559.png 945w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-600x355.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1109px) 100vw, 1109px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2022\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Quelle: google.com\/finance<\/p><\/div>\n<h3><strong>\u00dcberblick<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Resolute hat 5 Hauptgesch\u00e4ftssegmente:<\/p>\n<p>1) Marktzellstoff<br \/>\n2) Gewebe<br \/>\n3) Holzprodukte<br \/>\n4) Zeitungspapier<br \/>\n5) Spezialpapiere<\/p>\n<p>Ich werde jedes Segment der Reihe nach durchgehen und f\u00fcr jedes Segment eine sehr konservative Bewertung vornehmen.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2023\" style=\"width: 1057px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2023\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-2023 size-full\" title=\"Resolutes Forstprodukt (2)\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2.png\" alt=\"Resolutes Forstprodukt (2)\" width=\"1047\" height=\"739\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2.png 1047w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-300x212.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-768x542.png 768w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-1024x723.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-945x667.png 945w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-600x423.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1047px) 100vw, 1047px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2023\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Quelle: eigene Berechnung<em>s<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<h3><strong>Markt Zellstoff<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u2013 Resolute ist der drittgr\u00f6\u00dfte Zellstoffproduzent in Nordamerika.<br \/>\n\u2013 Produkte werden in Verpackungen, Spezialpapierprodukten, Windeln und anderen verwendet.<br \/>\n\u2013 Es erwarb Fibrek im Jahr 2012 f\u00fcr ungef\u00e4hr $126m.<br \/>\n\u2013 Bewertung: Betriebsergebnis (EBIT); $43m (2016) mit einem 5-fachen Vielfachen, da seine Einnahmen r\u00fcckl\u00e4ufig zu sein scheinen <strong>$215m<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Gewebe<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u2013 Dies ist ein neues Segment f\u00fcr Resolute. Nachdem das Unternehmen seine operativen Probleme in den letzten beiden Quartalen des Jahres 2016 gel\u00f6st hatte, begann sich dies tats\u00e4chlich positiv auf das Endergebnis auszuwirken (siehe unten f\u00fcr die Aufschl\u00fcsselung von Quartal zu Quartal). Das Management hat f\u00fcr 2017 ein EBITDA zwischen $8m und $12m angestrebt.<br \/>\n\u2013 Resolute hat Atlas erst vor wenigen Jahren f\u00fcr $150m erworben<br \/>\n\u2013 Mindestens gesch\u00e4tzt <strong>$50m.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Holzprodukte<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u2013 Insgesamt ein best\u00e4ndiger Verdiener von Betriebseinnahmen.<br \/>\n\u2013 In den sich verbessernden US-Immobilienmarkt verkauft.<br \/>\n\u2013 Es wird erwartet, dass es seine allm\u00e4hliche Erholung im Jahr 2017 fortsetzt und dann weiter wachsen wird. Aber auch ohne Wachstumsm\u00f6glichkeiten, lassen Sie mich das Betriebsergebnis mit einem 6-fachen Vielfachen beziffern, was es ungef\u00e4hr wert ist <strong>$415m<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Zeitungspapier<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u2013 Resolute bedient Zeitungsverlage weltweit<br \/>\n\u2013 Dieses Segment ist seit mehreren Jahren ein anhaltender Gegenwind, da viele Inhalte online gegangen sind und viele Wettbewerber das Angebot an Zeitungspapier auf dem Markt erh\u00f6ht haben.<br \/>\n\u2013 Resolute hat im letzten Quartal ein geringes Betriebsergebnis erzielt. Sagen Sie $4m und setzen Sie ein kleines Vielfaches ein, um den Gegenwind dieses Gesch\u00e4fts und sein wahrscheinlich sinkendes EBIT zu ber\u00fccksichtigen. Also 4x Vielfaches was in etwa aufkommt <strong>$15m<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Spezialpapier<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u2013 Einer der gr\u00f6\u00dften Hersteller von gestrichenen und ungestrichenen mechanischen Papieren. Verwendet in B\u00fcchern, Coupons usw.<br \/>\n\u2013 Es ist schwer zu sagen, wie es sich in Zukunft entwickeln wird, aber um vorsichtig zu sein, lassen Sie uns das 5-fache des durchschnittlichen Betriebseinkommens von $11,6 Mio. ansetzen <strong>$55m<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Insgesamt sind diese Segmente wert <strong>$750m. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Schlie\u00dflich habe ich ausgelassen <strong>Unternehmensgemeinkosten<\/strong>. Es ist schwer zu sagen, wie viel mehr das Management sein \u00fcbersch\u00fcssiges Fett reduzieren und die Margen des Unternehmens verbessern kann, aber lassen Sie mich in der gleichen konservativen Weise fortfahren und in der folgenden Tabelle hervorheben, dass das Management anscheinend bereits eine signifikante Verbesserung vorgenommen hat Unternehmensgemeinkosten und generierte in den letzten zwei Quartalen tats\u00e4chlich ein positives bereinigtes Betriebsergebnis (<em>einschlie\u00dflich<\/em> Overhead). Ich sollte auch darauf hinweisen, dass Resolute zwar zyklisch, aber nicht besonders saisonal ist. Und sollte es in der Lage sein, sein Betriebsergebnis ein wenig zu steigern, ist es nicht unangemessen, dass der faire Wert mindestens w\u00e4re <strong>$700m<\/strong> oder $7,8 pro Aktie.<\/p>\n<div class=\"mceTemp\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_2024\" style=\"width: 935px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2024\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-2024 size-full\" title=\"Resolutes Forstprodukt (3)\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3.png\" alt=\"Resolutes Forstprodukt (3)\" width=\"925\" height=\"722\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3.png 925w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3-768x599.png 768w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3-600x468.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 925px) 100vw, 925px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2024\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Quelle: eigene Berechnung<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Gr\u00f6\u00dfte Aktion\u00e4re<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_2025\" style=\"width: 1186px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2025\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2025\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1176\" height=\"474\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4.png 1176w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-768x310.png 768w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-1024x413.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-945x381.png 945w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-600x242.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1176px) 100vw, 1176px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2025\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Quelle: Vollmachtserkl\u00e4rung 2016<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Wenn ich Sie nicht davon \u00fcberzeugen konnte, dass Resolute einen Mehrwert bietet, werde ich jetzt die Tatsache hervorheben, dass Prem Watsa ungef\u00e4hr 341 TP4T der ausstehenden Aktien besitzt (insidercow.com), etwas mehr als bei der letzten Ver\u00f6ffentlichung des Proxys , was bedeutet, dass er in den letzten 12 Monaten gekauft hat.<\/p>\n<p>Dar\u00fcber hinaus besitzt ein weiterer hervorragender Value-Investor, Francis Chou, einen erheblichen Betrag der ausstehenden Aktien, die jetzt bis zu 8% der ausstehenden Aktien betragen. Chou kaufte Resolute, als das Unternehmen f\u00fcr etwa $1B gehandelt wurde.<\/p>\n<p>Also, wenn es n\u00f6rdlich von $1B gut genug f\u00fcr sie ist, ist es gut genug f\u00fcr mich bei $400m.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Fazit<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Es gibt offensichtlich viel Abneigung und Ekel, wenn es darum geht, in ein zyklisches rohstoff\u00e4hnliches Unternehmen zu investieren. Es gibt viele Faktoren, die v\u00f6llig au\u00dferhalb der Kontrolle des Managements liegen, am wenigsten der Preis seiner Produkte und die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage auf dem Markt. Trotzdem bin ich der Meinung, dass das Unternehmen im Verh\u00e4ltnis zu seinem Potenzial billig ist, wenn die Trendwende beginnt, das Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial von 50% zu verwirklichen.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitte denken Sie daran, dass dieser Artikel keine Empfehlung zum Kauf von Anteilen eines der genannten Wertpapiere darstellt. Die Anlage in unbeliebte Wertpapiere birgt Risiken, die f\u00fcr Sie m\u00f6glicherweise nicht geeignet sind.<\/em>\u00a0<em>Bitte f\u00fchren Sie Ihre eigene Sorgfaltspflicht durch, um zu Ihren eigenen Schlussfolgerungen zu gelangen. Danke f\u00fcrs Lesen.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Wenn Sie relevante Finanznachrichten f\u00fcr Resolute Forest Products in Echtzeit verfolgen m\u00f6chten, sehen Sie sich das an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/watchlists?assets=Resolute%20Forest%20Products%20Inc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hier<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Haftungsausschluss: Dies ist ein Gastbeitrag von Michael Wiggins De Oliveira und spiegelt nicht die Ansichten von CityFALCON und seinen Stakeholdern wider. Resolute Forest Product (RFP) Datum: 3.10.2017 Marktkapitalisierung: ~ $400m Preis pro Aktie: $4.50 Nettoverschuldung: ~$761m EV:\u2026 <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/de\/investments\/resolute-forest-product-rfp-its-cyclical-its-out-of-favour-and-34-owned-by-prem-watsa\/\">Weiterlesen \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":2028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[121,30,81],"class_list":["post-2021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-analysis","tag-investing","tag-stocks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Resolute Forest Product (RFP) - CityFALCON Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Resolute Forest Product is a diversified company that sells forest products. 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