{"id":635,"date":"2014-05-21T04:20:20","date_gmt":"2014-05-21T04:20:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityfalcon.com\/blog\/?p=635"},"modified":"2017-10-05T12:17:34","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T12:17:34","slug":"will-twitter-follow-the-post-ipo-price-trend-of-linkedin-or-of-zynga","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/de\/investments\/will-twitter-follow-the-post-ipo-price-trend-of-linkedin-or-of-zynga\/","title":{"rendered":"Wird Twitter dem Post-IPO-Preistrend von LinkedIn oder Zynga folgen?"},"content":{"rendered":"<br \/>\n<style>\n.wp-caption {\nmax-width: 100% !important;\n}\n iframe {\nmax-width: 100%; hight: auto;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div id=\"a-body\">\n<p class=\"p p1\"><strong>Zusammenfassung<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tech-Unternehmen haben nach ihren B\u00f6rseng\u00e4ngen 4 Phasen durchlaufen: Euphorie, Pessimismus, Optimismus und Realismus.<\/li>\n<li>Twitter befindet sich in der \u201ePessimismus\u201c-Phase, und der Kurstrend zeigt im Vergleich zur Post-IPO-Performance von Facebook und LinkedIn nach oben pTecotential.<\/li>\n<li>Auch wenn der Preistrend von Twitter dem von Zynga be\u00e4ngstigend nahe kommt, ist es unwahrscheinlich, dass Twitter einen signifikanten Umsatzr\u00fcckgang wie Zynga verzeichnen wird und daher dem Trend nicht folgen wird.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"a-body\">\n<p class=\"p p1\">J\u00fcngste Technologie-IPOs haben einige \u00c4hnlichkeiten in ihrer Preisbewegung nach der Notierung gezeigt. Sie alle scheinen 4 Phasen durchlaufen zu haben \u2013 1) Anf\u00e4ngliche \u201eEuphorie\u201c, bei der alle versuchen, die Aktien in die H\u00e4nde zu bekommen, und Analysten unrealistische Erwartungen setzen und hohe Bewertungen rechtfertigen; 2) Ein Zustand des \u201ePessimismus\u201c, nachdem Unternehmen die fr\u00fchen unrealistischen Erwartungen nicht erf\u00fcllt haben, und eine Verringerung des Engagements von Fonds und Institutionen; 3) \u201eErholung und Optimismus\u201c, sobald das Unternehmen beginnt, die niedrigen Erwartungen zu \u00fcbertreffen, und 4) \u201eRealismus\u201c, der einsetzt und die Aktie versucht, ihren fundamentalen Wert zu finden.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p p1\">Um die obige Hypothese zu beweisen, habe ich mir die Preistrends einiger neuerer Technologie-IPOs nach dem B\u00f6rsengang angesehen. Zum leichteren Verst\u00e4ndnis ist der Schlusskurs von Tag 1 (und NICHT der IPO-Preis) auf 100 indexiert.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p p1\">Es gibt mehrere andere Faktoren, die die Preisentwicklung und den Schlusskurs am Tag 1 beeinflusst haben k\u00f6nnten, darunter die Verf\u00fcgbarkeit hochwertiger Technologieaktien beim B\u00f6rsengang, die geopolitische Situation und die Wirtschaftst\u00e4tigkeit. Wir ignorieren diese jedoch f\u00fcr die Zwecke dieser Analyse.<\/p>\n<p>In der folgenden Grafik k\u00f6nnen wir sehen, wie LinkedIn (NYSE:<a title=\"LinkedIn\" href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/LNKD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">LNKD<\/a>) k\u00f6nnte in Phase 4 sein und versucht, seinen fundamentalen Wert zu finden, w\u00e4hrend ich glaube, dass Facebook (NASDAQ:<a title=\"Facebook\" href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/FB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FB<\/a>) befindet sich noch in Phase 3. Twitter (NYSE:<a title=\"Twitter, Inc.\" href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/TWTR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">TWTR<\/a>) befindet sich noch in Phase 2 und wird schlie\u00dflich aufsteigen.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004952826686866-ruzbehb.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1434\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004952826686866-ruzbehb.png\" alt=\"4752961-14004952826686866-ruzbehb\" width=\"640\" height=\"283\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004952826686866-ruzbehb.png 640w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004952826686866-ruzbehb-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004952826686866-ruzbehb-600x265.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"p p2\">Quelle: Eigene Analyse, Yahoo Finance<\/p>\n<p class=\"p p2\">Sie k\u00f6nnten jedoch eine andere Geschichte sehen, wenn Sie Twitter mit einigen anderen B\u00f6rseng\u00e4ngen vergleichen \u2013 Groupon (NASDAQ:<a title=\"Groupon, Inc.\" href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/GRPN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">GRPN<\/a>) und Zynga (NASDAQ:<a title=\"Zynga\" href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/ZNGA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ZNGA<\/a>). In der folgenden Grafik k\u00f6nnen Sie sehen, wie die Leistung von Twitter der von Zynga erschreckend nahe kommt, was einen weiteren erheblichen Nachteil f\u00fcr Twitter bedeuten k\u00f6nnte.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"p p2\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004944456933873-ruzbehb.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1435\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004944456933873-ruzbehb.png\" alt=\"4752961-14004944456933873-ruzbehb\" width=\"640\" height=\"284\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004944456933873-ruzbehb.png 640w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004944456933873-ruzbehb-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14004944456933873-ruzbehb-600x266.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"p p2\">Quelle: Eigene Analyse, Yahoo Finance<\/p>\n<p class=\"p p2\">Zynga hat jedoch seit seinem B\u00f6rsengang Probleme, seinen Umsatz zu steigern. In der folgenden Grafik, in der die Umsatzzahlen des ersten Quartals nach dem B\u00f6rsengang auf 100 indexiert sind, k\u00f6nnen Sie sehen, dass die Quartalsums\u00e4tze von Zynga in den letzten 3 Jahren erheblich zur\u00fcckgegangen sind, und tats\u00e4chlich war der Umsatz im 1. Quartal 2014 nur halb so hoch wie im 4. Quartal 2011 (nach dem ersten Quartal). B\u00f6rsengang). Andererseits sind die Einnahmen von LinkedIn seit dem B\u00f6rsengang fast jedes Quartal gestiegen, und ich gehe davon aus, dass Twitter durch die zunehmende Konzentration auf die Monetarisierung der Nutzung seiner \u00fcber 250 Millionen Nutzer einen \u00e4hnlichen Wachstumstrend zeigen kann. Analysten erwarten, dass Twitter seinen Umsatz von $1,3 Mrd. im Jahr 2014 auf $2,1 Mrd. im Jahr 2015 und den Gewinn je Aktie von 4 Cent auf 25 Cent steigern wird (Quelle: Yahoo Finance).<\/p>\n<p class=\"p p2\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14006007653579533-ruzbehb_origin.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1436\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14006007653579533-ruzbehb_origin.png\" alt=\"4752961-14006007653579533-ruzbehb_origin\" width=\"1771\" height=\"784\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14006007653579533-ruzbehb_origin.png 1771w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14006007653579533-ruzbehb_origin-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14006007653579533-ruzbehb_origin-1024x453.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14006007653579533-ruzbehb_origin-945x418.png 945w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/4752961-14006007653579533-ruzbehb_origin-600x266.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1771px) 100vw, 1771px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"p p2\">Quelle: Eigene Analyse, ver\u00f6ffentlichte Ergebnisse<\/p>\n<p class=\"p p2\"><strong>Fazit<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p p2\">Meine Absicht ist es, Ihnen hier einen weiteren Blickwinkel zu bieten, den Sie mit Ihrer fundamentalen Sicht auf die Aktie kombinieren k\u00f6nnen. Meine Liebe zum Produkt als Nutzer und Werbetreibender stimmt mich optimistisch f\u00fcr die Zukunft des Unternehmens, aber die Aktie braucht einige Ausl\u00f6ser, um wieder zu steigen. Denken Sie daran, dass Facebook von seinem IPO-Preis von $38 um 50% auf $19 gefallen ist, bevor es den aktuellen Wert von $60 erreicht hat. Ich plane, Twitter in den kommenden Wochen zu akkumulieren.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p p3\"><strong>Offenlegung: <\/strong>Ich bin lange FB. Ich habe diesen Artikel selbst geschrieben und er dr\u00fcckt meine eigene Meinung aus. Ich erhalte daf\u00fcr keine Entsch\u00e4digung (au\u00dfer von Seeking Alpha). Ich habe keine Gesch\u00e4ftsbeziehung mit einem Unternehmen, dessen Aktien in diesem Artikel erw\u00e4hnt werden.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p p3\"><strong>Zus\u00e4tzliche Offenlegung:<\/strong> Ich werde in den kommenden Wochen m\u00f6glicherweise eine Long-Position in Twitter er\u00f6ffnen.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zusammenfassung Technologieunternehmen, die ihre B\u00f6rseng\u00e4nge ver\u00f6ffentlichen, haben 4 Phasen durchlaufen: Euphorie, Pessimismus, Optimismus und Realismus. Twitter befindet sich in der \u201ePessimismus\u201c-Phase, und der Kurstrend zeigt im Vergleich zur Post-IPO-Performance von Facebook und LinkedIn nach oben pTecotential. Auch wenn Twitter\u2026 <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/de\/investments\/will-twitter-follow-the-post-ipo-price-trend-of-linkedin-or-of-zynga\/\">Weiterlesen \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":639,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[61,51,81,26],"class_list":["post-635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-ipo","tag-markets","tag-stocks","tag-twitter"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will Twitter follow Post-IPO price trend of LinkedIn or Zynga?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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