{"id":902,"date":"2016-06-15T07:15:27","date_gmt":"2016-06-15T07:15:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityfalcon.com\/blog\/?p=902"},"modified":"2017-10-05T11:36:26","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T11:36:26","slug":"why-im-staying-long-gbpeur-into-the-eu-referendum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/de\/investments\/why-im-staying-long-gbpeur-into-the-eu-referendum\/","title":{"rendered":"Warum bleibe ich bei GBP\/EUR beim EU-Referendum long?"},"content":{"rendered":"<br \/>\n<style>\n.wp-caption {\nmax-width: 100% !important;\n}\n iframe {\nmax-width: 100%; hight: auto;\n}\n<\/style>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Da die Brexit-Abstimmung nur noch wenige Tage entfernt ist, habe ich meine Aktienpositionen abgesichert. Die einzige gro\u00dfe direktionale Position, die ich halten m\u00f6chte, ist GBP\/EUR, wo ich das Gef\u00fchl habe, dass es Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial gibt, um davon zu profitieren, ob der Brexit kommt oder nicht. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitte beachten Sie, dass ich mich nicht um die Technik k\u00fcmmere und mich hier nur auf die grundlegende Geschichte konzentriere. Au\u00dferdem gibt es andere Faktoren und Wirtschaftsdaten, die dieses W\u00e4hrungspaar beeinflussen k\u00f6nnten. Ich bin bereit, meine Position bei Bedarf f\u00fcr sechs Monate bis zu einem Jahr zu halten. Bitte recherchieren Sie selbst, bevor Sie diesen Handel ausf\u00fchren.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>GBP\/EUR ist in den letzten 6 Monaten um 9% auf 1,2555 gefallen<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Es ist sehr schwierig, den R\u00fcckgang irgendeinem Faktor zuzuschreiben, aber die meisten Marktteilnehmer glauben, dass Brexit-\u00c4ngste eine Rolle beim Niedergang der W\u00e4hrung gespielt haben k\u00f6nnten. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-903\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR.png\" alt=\"GBP-EUR\" width=\"610\" height=\"271\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR.png 610w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR-600x267.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 610px) 100vw, 610px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Szenario 1: Der Brexit findet statt<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Im Falle eines Brexit k\u00f6nnten sowohl das GBP als auch der EUR gegen\u00fcber dem USD weiter fallen, und in einer reflexartigen Reaktion k\u00f6nnte das GBP st\u00e4rker fallen als der EUR, was bedeutet, dass GBP\/EUR zun\u00e4chst fallen k\u00f6nnte. Ich glaube, dass die EU in diesem Szenario mehr zu verlieren hat als Gro\u00dfbritannien \u2013 einen gro\u00dfen Bruder weniger, um den schwachen Volkswirtschaften in der EU zu helfen, und Druck von anderen L\u00e4ndern, insbesondere Frankreich, f\u00fcr ein Referendum zum Austritt aus der EU. Dies k\u00f6nnte zu einer Schw\u00e4chung oder einem Zusammenbruch der EU f\u00fchren, und nat\u00fcrlich k\u00f6nnte der EUR erheblich an Wert verlieren. Aufgrund dieser Faktoren hoffe ich, dass GBP\/EUR nach dem anf\u00e4nglichen R\u00fcckgang kurz- bis mittelfristig aufwertet.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Szenario 2: Wir bleiben in der EU<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wenn wir in der EU bleiben, sollte es keine gro\u00dfen Auswirkungen auf das W\u00e4hrungspaar geben, aber es kann sein, dass das GBP eine Erholungsrallye erlebt und einen Teil des R\u00fcckgangs wettmacht, den es in den letzten 6 Monaten aufgrund der Brexit-Bef\u00fcrchtungen hatte. Es besteht also ein Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial mit einem begrenzten Abw\u00e4rtsrisiko.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Zusammenfassend lautet meine These, dass GBP\/EUR unabh\u00e4ngig vom Ausgang des EU-Referendums aufwerten kann. Falls es nicht aufwertet, scheint der Nachteil begrenzt zu sein. Umarmen Sie sich jedoch f\u00fcr etwas Volatilit\u00e4t. \u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Wenn Sie aktuelle Nachrichten \u00fcber Brexit, W\u00e4hrungspaare usw. im Auge behalten m\u00f6chten, k\u00f6nnen Sie dies tun <\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/watchlists?assets=EURGBP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><b>CityFALCON<\/b><\/a><b>.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Da die Brexit-Abstimmung nur noch wenige Tage entfernt ist, habe ich meine Aktienpositionen abgesichert. Die einzige gro\u00dfe direktionale Position, die ich zu halten plane \u2026<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/blog\/investments\/why-im-staying-long-gbpeur-into-the-eu-referendum\/\">Lesen Sie weiter \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":904,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[140],"class_list":["post-902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-brexit"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why I\u2019m Staying Long GBP\/EUR Into The EU Referendum?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the Brexit vote only a few days away, I\u2019ve been hedging my equity positions. 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