{"id":1584,"date":"2016-11-18T10:49:44","date_gmt":"2016-11-18T10:49:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityfalcon.com\/blog\/?p=1584"},"modified":"2017-12-19T14:31:40","modified_gmt":"2017-12-19T14:31:40","slug":"the-decline-from-demonization-provides-a-great-opportunity-for-long-term-investors-to-buy-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/es\/investments\/the-decline-from-demonization-provides-a-great-opportunity-for-long-term-investors-to-buy-india\/","title":{"rendered":"La disminuci\u00f3n de la desmonetizaci\u00f3n brinda una gran oportunidad para que los inversores a largo plazo compren la India"},"content":{"rendered":"

Continuando con la agenda de reformas del gobierno indio, el PM Modi anunci\u00f3 el 8 de noviembre la desmonetizaci\u00f3n inmediata de Rs. Billetes de 500 & Rs.1000, en una medida para reducir el dinero negro en el sistema, frenar el financiamiento de actividades ilegales y abordar el problema de los billetes falsos. Se espera que la decisi\u00f3n de desmonetizar estas dos denominaciones, que constituyen 86% del valor total de la moneda en circulaci\u00f3n y se estima en ~ INR14 billones (\u00a3 165 mil millones), tenga importantes implicaciones para la econom\u00eda paralela de la India. Este movimiento coincidi\u00f3 con otro evento hist\u00f3rico: los resultados de las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos, en los que Trump fue declarado presidente.<\/p>\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 est\u00e1 impulsando los mercados indios desde el 9 de noviembre?<\/strong><\/p>\n

El 9 de noviembre, los mercados asi\u00e1ticos cayeron en reacci\u00f3n a una inesperada victoria de Trump, mientras se enfrentaban a la incertidumbre planteada por sus pol\u00edticas hacia los mercados emergentes y su impacto en el comercio y la econom\u00eda, y el apetito por el riesgo global disminuy\u00f3, lo que provoc\u00f3 flujos de capital masivos hacia refugios seguros. Sin embargo, para los mercados indios, la volatilidad aument\u00f3 debido a la desmonetizaci\u00f3n, lo que provoc\u00f3 una ca\u00edda m\u00e1s pronunciada en los mercados indios en comparaci\u00f3n con los otros mercados asi\u00e1ticos. BSE Sensex abri\u00f3 ~ 1600 puntos (6%) m\u00e1s bajo, pero se recuper\u00f3 m\u00e1s tarde.<\/p>\n

\"Fuente:<\/a>

Fuente: Google Finance<\/p><\/div>\n

Los mercados han experimentado una correcci\u00f3n desde el anuncio, principalmente impulsados por bienes ra\u00edces, consumo y acciones de peque\u00f1a y mediana capitalizaci\u00f3n. Para el sector inmobiliario, que se sabe que realiza transacciones en efectivo de gran magnitud, se espera que los precios caigan a medida que los precios inflados de la tierra y la vivienda se reajustan a un descubrimiento de precios m\u00e1s eficiente para los compradores genuinos. Los mercados tambi\u00e9n reaccionaron a una ca\u00edda esperada en la demanda de consumo del sector minorista de alta gama, para art\u00edculos de alto precio que incluyen electrodom\u00e9sticos, autom\u00f3viles, propiedades, gemas y joyer\u00eda, as\u00ed como tambi\u00e9n la reducci\u00f3n del consumo por parte del sector rural donde la mayor\u00eda de las transacciones se realizan. realizado en efectivo. Las acciones de tama\u00f1o mediano y peque\u00f1o tambi\u00e9n sufrieron una ca\u00edda, ya que la mayor\u00eda de estas empresas dependen en gran medida del efectivo para sus operaciones diarias. Parte de la ca\u00edda tambi\u00e9n podr\u00eda atribuirse a la venta de p\u00e1nico, ya que los inversores se apresuraron a vender acciones para superar la inesperada crisis de liquidez.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, esta crisis a corto plazo presenta una buena oportunidad de compra a largo plazo que los inversores pueden aprovechar. Para comprender la historia macro detallada, eche un vistazo a nuestro art\u00edculo de septiembre de 2016: Por qu\u00e9 y c\u00f3mo invertir en India<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u00bfC\u00f3mo afecta la desmonetizaci\u00f3n a sectores individuales?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Los ganadores: <\/strong>El sector bancario ha sido un claro ganador. El aumento de la entrada de efectivo de los dep\u00f3sitos mejorar\u00e1 CASA, reducir\u00e1 las tasas de dep\u00f3sito bancarias y dar\u00e1 a los bancos acceso a fuentes de fondos baratas. Tambi\u00e9n conducir\u00e1 a tipos de inter\u00e9s m\u00e1s bajos, lo que podr\u00eda impulsar la demanda de cr\u00e9dito. Se espera que los bancos de PSU se beneficien m\u00e1s en comparaci\u00f3n con los bancos privados debido a las redes de franquicias de sucursales \/ minoristas (SBI) m\u00e1s grandes. Sin embargo, se espera que las NBFC, las IMF y los prestamistas de oro (Mahindra Finance, Muthoot Finance, Chola Investments, Mannapuram, etc.) se vean temporalmente afectados negativamente, ya que realizan transacciones principalmente en efectivo.<\/p>\n

S&P BSE Bankex<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"(Fuente<\/a>

(Fuente de la imagen: Google Finance)<\/p><\/div>\n

Adem\u00e1s de los bancos, el sector de la tecnolog\u00eda podr\u00eda ser otro beneficiario debido a un cambio en los patrones de gasto y la aspiraci\u00f3n a largo plazo de que las personas y las empresas se queden sin efectivo. Las empresas de tecnolog\u00eda financiera y comercio electr\u00f3nico, que incluyen proveedores de servicios de pasarela de pago (servicio de pasarela de pago PayUbiz), empresas de tarjetas y empresas minoristas en l\u00ednea, podr\u00edan beneficiarse de la medida. Las empresas de billetera m\u00f3vil \/ nuevas empresas como One97 Communications Ltd., Mobikwik Systems, Oxigen Services, etc.tambi\u00e9n se beneficiar\u00e1n de las personas que cambien de efectivo a pagos digitales.<\/p>\n

Los perdedores: <\/strong>Sin embargo, hay ciertos sectores que claramente deben evitarse. El sector inmobiliario, sufrir\u00e1 una importante correcci\u00f3n y dar\u00e1 lugar a la revalorizaci\u00f3n (l\u00e9ase devaluaci\u00f3n) de las transacciones inmobiliarias \/ inventario. Busque empresas con un mejor gobierno corporativo dentro del sector para obtener ganancias a largo plazo. Las industrias relacionadas, como la construcci\u00f3n, se ver\u00e1n muy afectadas ya que las empresas luchan por pagar a los jornaleros. El cemento, que se utiliza principalmente para la construcci\u00f3n de viviendas, tambi\u00e9n enfrentar\u00e1 problemas por la disminuci\u00f3n de la demanda en el sector inmobiliario organizado (Ambuja Cements)<\/p>\n

El sector de consumo discrecional es otro perdedor. El consumo de oro y joyas, uno de los principales beneficiarios de las transacciones de dinero negro, ser\u00e1 el m\u00e1s afectado (TBZ). Tambi\u00e9n se espera que la gente reduzca las inversiones en bienes duraderos como electr\u00f3nica de consumo, autom\u00f3viles y art\u00edculos de lujo. Las ventas de cigarrillos en su mayor\u00eda en efectivo tambi\u00e9n sufrir\u00e1n (ITC), las existencias de alimentos y bebidas como Coffee Day, bienes de consumo masivo como HUL tambi\u00e9n pueden verse afectadas, pero la lealtad del cliente podr\u00eda amortiguar su ca\u00edda.<\/p>\n

Algunos de los principales perdedores de ADR desde la desmonetizaci\u00f3n se enumeran a continuaci\u00f3n:<\/p>\n

Tata Motors (<\/a>TTM<\/a>)<\/a><\/p>\n

\"(Fuente<\/a>

(Fuente de la imagen: Google Finance)<\/p><\/div>\n

ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN)<\/a><\/p>\n

\"(Fuente<\/a>

(Fuente de la imagen: Google Finance)<\/p><\/div>\n

HDFC Bank Ltd. (<\/a>HDB<\/a>)<\/a><\/p>\n

\"(Fuente<\/a>

(Fuente de la imagen: Google Finance)<\/p><\/div>\n

El panorama a largo plazo parece optimista a pesar de los contratiempos actuales<\/strong><\/p>\n

Este paso, mucho m\u00e1s grande que la reforma del GST, provocar\u00e1 una volatilidad temporal en el mercado y podr\u00eda ser negativo para la econom\u00eda a corto plazo como una desaceleraci\u00f3n en la velocidad de la demanda comercial y de consumo (principalmente por la p\u00e9rdida de 'dinero del pecado' que se volver\u00e1 in\u00fatil) podr\u00eda crear una ca\u00edda temporal en el PIB (se estima que el dinero negro es ~ 10% del PIB). Sin embargo, conducir\u00e1 a una mayor transparencia y cumplimiento tributario, lo que generar\u00e1 beneficios estructurales a largo plazo, como una mayor inclusi\u00f3n financiera y una mayor productividad nacional. Pagar\u00e1 a los inversores ver el bosque por los \u00e1rboles, ya que las reformas relacionadas con la corrupci\u00f3n y los impuestos (GST) ayudar\u00e1n a mejorar la imagen de la India, llevar\u00e1n a una mejora de las calificaciones e impulsar\u00e1n las inversiones globales a largo plazo. Los inversores tambi\u00e9n pueden explotar la volatilidad a corto plazo eligiendo empresas fundamentalmente fuertes a precios razonables. India Los inversores deben mantenerse alejados de estos sectores por ahora: bienes ra\u00edces, NBFC, construcci\u00f3n, cemento y consumo discrecional. El moolah radica en los sectores bancario y tecnol\u00f3gico<\/p>\n

Los inversores extranjeros no est\u00e1n completamente excluidos de acceder a estos posibles rendimientos, ya que los ADR, GDR, ETF y fondos mutuos permiten la inversi\u00f3n en empresas indias del exterior, en muchos mercados de todo el mundo. Puede rastrear noticias completas, personalizadas y en tiempo real para la India ADR<\/a> en CityFALCON.<\/p>\n

Nota:<\/em><\/strong> No es mi intenci\u00f3n discutir opiniones pol\u00edticas sobre el tema de la desmonetizaci\u00f3n. Este art\u00edculo est\u00e1 escrito \u00fanicamente para discutir mis puntos de vista sobre el impacto econ\u00f3mico de la desmonetizaci\u00f3n y las ideas de inversi\u00f3n relacionadas desde la perspectiva del mercado de valores. <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Continuando con la agenda de reformas del gobierno indio, el PM Modi anunci\u00f3 el 8 de noviembre la desmonetizaci\u00f3n inmediata de Rs. 500 & Rs.1000, en un movimiento para reducir el dinero negro en el sistema, frenar el financiamiento de actividades ilegales y abordar el\u2026 Seguir leyendo \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[51,164],"class_list":["post-1584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-markets","tag-stock-market-news"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Decline from Demonetisation Provides a Great Opportunity for Long term Investors to Buy India<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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