{"id":2021,"date":"2017-03-21T12:20:31","date_gmt":"2017-03-21T12:20:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityfalcon.com\/blog\/?p=2021"},"modified":"2017-10-05T10:26:56","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T10:26:56","slug":"resolute-forest-product-rfp-its-cyclical-its-out-of-favour-and-34-owned-by-prem-watsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/es\/investments\/resolute-forest-product-rfp-its-cyclical-its-out-of-favour-and-34-owned-by-prem-watsa\/","title":{"rendered":"Producto forestal decidido (RFP): c\u00edclico, fuera de favor pero 34% propiedad de Prem Watsa"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>\n.wp-caption {\nmax-width: 100% !important;\n}\n iframe {\nmax-width: 100%; hight: auto;\n}\n<\/style>\n<p><strong><em>Descargo de responsabilidad: esta es una publicaci\u00f3n de invitado de Michael Wiggins De Oliveira<\/em><em>, y no refleja las opiniones de CityFALCON y sus partes interesadas.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>Producto forestal resuelto (RFP)<br \/>\nFecha: 10\/3\/2017<br \/>\nCapitalizaci\u00f3n de mercado: ~ $400m<br \/>\nPrecio por acci\u00f3n: $4.50<br \/>\nDeuda neta: ~ $761m<br \/>\nEV: 1.1b<\/h4>\n<h2><strong>Resumen de la idea:<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Resolute es una empresa diversificada que vende productos forestales. Tiene mucho pesimismo en el precio, pero ninguna esperanza. Despu\u00e9s de a\u00f1os de bajo rendimiento, los accionistas est\u00e1n cansados y venden sin importar el precio. A medida que la empresa comience a salir de esta recesi\u00f3n de las materias primas que afecta a los productos de madera, creo que ser\u00e1 evidente un cambio en los pr\u00f3ximos 24 meses y el precio de sus acciones se ajustar\u00e1 para reflejar esa &quot;nueva&quot; esperanza encontrada. puedo ver\u00a0<strong>potencial de subida de aproximadamente 50%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2022\" style=\"width: 1119px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2022\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-2022 size-full\" title=\"Producto forestal resuelto\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1.png\" alt=\"Producto forestal resuelto\" width=\"1109\" height=\"656\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1.png 1109w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-768x454.png 768w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-1024x606.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-945x559.png 945w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute1-600x355.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1109px) 100vw, 1109px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2022\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fuente: google.com\/finance<\/p><\/div>\n<h3><strong>Visi\u00f3n general<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Resolute tiene 5 segmentos operativos principales:<\/p>\n<p>1) Pulpa comercial<br \/>\n2) Tejido<br \/>\n3) Productos de madera<br \/>\n4) Papel de peri\u00f3dico<br \/>\n5) Papeles especiales<\/p>\n<p>Revisar\u00e9 cada segmento por turno e incluir\u00e9 una valoraci\u00f3n muy conservadora en cada segmento.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2023\" style=\"width: 1057px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2023\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-2023 size-full\" title=\"Producto forestal resuelto (2)\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2.png\" alt=\"Producto forestal resuelto (2)\" width=\"1047\" height=\"739\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2.png 1047w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-300x212.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-768x542.png 768w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-1024x723.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-945x667.png 945w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute2-600x423.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1047px) 100vw, 1047px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2023\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fuente: c\u00e1lculo del autor.<em>s<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<h3><strong>Pulpa de mercado<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>- Resolute es el tercer productor de celulosa m\u00e1s grande de Am\u00e9rica del Norte.<br \/>\n- Los productos se utilizan en envases, productos de papel especial, pa\u00f1ales y otros.<br \/>\n- Adquiri\u00f3 Fibrek en 2012 por aproximadamente $126m.<br \/>\n- Valoraci\u00f3n: resultado operativo (EBIT); $43m (2016) con un m\u00faltiplo de 5x porque sus ingresos parecen estar disminuyendo llega a <strong>El $215m<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Tejido<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>- Este es un segmento nuevo para Resolute. Una vez que la empresa resolvi\u00f3 sus problemas operativos en los \u00faltimos dos trimestres de 2016, esto realmente ha comenzado a aumentar el resultado final (vea a continuaci\u00f3n el desglose trimestre tras trimestre). La gerencia tiene un EBITDA objetivo para 2017 de entre $8m-$12m.<br \/>\n- Resolute adquiri\u00f3 Atlas hace solo unos a\u00f1os por $150m<br \/>\n- Valorado por lo menos <strong>$50m.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Productos de madera<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>- En general, una fuente constante de ingresos operativos.<br \/>\n- Vendido al mercado inmobiliario estadounidense en proceso de mejora.<br \/>\n- Se proyecta que contin\u00fae su recuperaci\u00f3n gradual en 2017, y luego crecer\u00e1. Pero incluso sin ninguna capacidad de crecimiento, perm\u00edtanme poner un m\u00faltiplo de 6 veces en los ingresos operativos, lo que hace que valga aproximadamente <strong>El $415m<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Papel prensa<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>- Editores de peri\u00f3dicos de servicios decididos en todo el mundo<br \/>\n- Este segmento ha sido un viento en contra persistente durante varios a\u00f1os, ya que una gran cantidad de contenido se ha publicado en l\u00ednea y muchos competidores han aumentado la oferta de papel de peri\u00f3dico en el mercado.<br \/>\n- Resolute ha generado una peque\u00f1a cantidad de ingresos operativos el \u00faltimo trimestre. Digamos $4m y coloque un peque\u00f1o m\u00faltiplo para tener en cuenta los vientos en contra de este negocio y su probable EBIT decreciente. Por lo tanto, un m\u00faltiplo de 4 veces <strong>El $15m<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Papel especial<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>- Uno de los mayores productores de papeles mec\u00e1nicos estucados y no estucados. Utilizado en libros, cupones, etc.<br \/>\n- Es dif\u00edcil decir c\u00f3mo se desempe\u00f1ar\u00e1 en el futuro, pero para ser conservadores, pongamos 5 veces el ingreso operativo promedio de $11.6m, llega a <strong>El $55m<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>En total, estos segmentos valen <strong>$750m. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Finalmente, he dejado fuera <strong>gastos generales corporativos<\/strong>. Es dif\u00edcil decir cu\u00e1nto m\u00e1s la administraci\u00f3n puede reducir su exceso de grasa y mejorar los m\u00e1rgenes de la empresa, pero perm\u00edtanme continuar de la misma manera conservadora y resaltar en la tabla a continuaci\u00f3n que parece que la administraci\u00f3n ya ha realizado una mejora significativa en su gastos generales corporativos y en los \u00faltimos dos trimestres gener\u00f3 ingresos operativos ajustados positivos (<em>incluso<\/em> gastos generales). Tambi\u00e9n debo se\u00f1alar que Resolute, aunque c\u00edclico, no es particularmente estacional. Y si pudiera hacer crecer un poco sus ingresos operativos, no es descabellado que el valor razonable sea al menos <strong>El $700m<\/strong> o $7.8 por acci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<div class=\"mceTemp\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_2024\" style=\"width: 935px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2024\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-2024 size-full\" title=\"Producto forestal resuelto (3)\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3.png\" alt=\"Producto forestal resuelto (3)\" width=\"925\" height=\"722\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3.png 925w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3-768x599.png 768w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute3-600x468.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 925px) 100vw, 925px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2024\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fuente: c\u00e1lculo del autor.<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><strong>Mayores accionistas<\/strong><\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_2025\" style=\"width: 1186px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2025\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2025\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1176\" height=\"474\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4.png 1176w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-768x310.png 768w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-1024x413.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-945x381.png 945w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/resolute4-600x242.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1176px) 100vw, 1176px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2025\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fuente: Declaraci\u00f3n de poder 2016<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Si no he podido persuadirlo de que se puede generar valor en Resolute, ahora destacar\u00e9 el hecho de que Prem Watsa posee aproximadamente 34% de las acciones en circulaci\u00f3n (insidercow.com), un poco m\u00e1s que cuando se public\u00f3 por \u00faltima vez el proxy. , lo que significa que ha estado comprando durante los \u00faltimos 12 meses.<\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, otro inversor de gran valor, Francis Chou, posee una cantidad importante de acciones en circulaci\u00f3n que ahora ascienden a 8% de las acciones en circulaci\u00f3n. Chou compr\u00f3 Resolute cuando la empresa se cotizaba por alrededor de $1B.<\/p>\n<p>Entonces, si es lo suficientemente bueno para ellos al norte de $1B, es lo suficientemente bueno para m\u00ed en $400m.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Conclusi\u00f3n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Obviamente, hay mucho desagrado y disgusto cuando se trata de invertir en una empresa c\u00edclica similar a las materias primas. Hay muchos factores que est\u00e1n totalmente fuera del control de la gerencia, y mucho menos el precio de sus productos y las interacciones de la oferta y la demanda en el mercado. Sin embargo, a pesar de eso, creo que la compa\u00f1\u00eda es barata en relaci\u00f3n con su potencial cuando el cambio de tendencia comienza a materializarse con el potencial alcista 50%.<\/p>\n<p><em>Recuerde que este art\u00edculo no es una recomendaci\u00f3n para comprar acciones de ninguno de los valores mencionados. La inversi\u00f3n en valores desfavorecidos conlleva riesgos que pueden no ser adecuados para usted.<\/em>\u00a0<em>Por favor, haga su propia diligencia debida para llegar a sus propias conclusiones. Gracias por leer.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Si desea realizar un seguimiento de las noticias financieras relevantes en tiempo real para Resolute Forest Products, compru\u00e9belo <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/watchlists?assets=Resolute%20Forest%20Products%20Inc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">aqu\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Descargo de responsabilidad: esta es una publicaci\u00f3n de invitado de Michael Wiggins De Oliveira y no refleja las opiniones de CityFALCON y sus partes interesadas. Producto forestal resuelto (RFP) Fecha: 3\/10\/2017 Capitalizaci\u00f3n de mercado: ~ $400m Precio por acci\u00f3n: $4.50 Deuda neta: ~ $761m EV:\u2026 <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/es\/investments\/resolute-forest-product-rfp-its-cyclical-its-out-of-favour-and-34-owned-by-prem-watsa\/\">Seguir leyendo \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":2028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[121,30,81],"class_list":["post-2021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-analysis","tag-investing","tag-stocks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Resolute Forest Product (RFP) - CityFALCON Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Resolute Forest Product is a diversified company that sells forest products. 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