{"id":2997,"date":"2017-07-04T17:49:51","date_gmt":"2017-07-04T17:49:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/?p=2997"},"modified":"2017-12-19T14:22:02","modified_gmt":"2017-12-19T14:22:02","slug":"chinas-manufacturing-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/es\/market-news-analysis\/chinas-manufacturing-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Datos de fabricaci\u00f3n de China: \u00bfesta recuperaci\u00f3n es sostenible?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Los optimistas datos de fabricaci\u00f3n del PMI de China para junio, publicados esta semana, apuntan a una econom\u00eda en expansi\u00f3n y una mejora de las condiciones econ\u00f3micas en el segundo trimestre. Pero, \u00bfc\u00f3mo se deben leer estos datos a la luz de las perspectivas de crecimiento de China?<\/p>\n

Mejora de las perspectivas a corto plazo<\/b><\/p>\n

La preocupaci\u00f3n por un aterrizaje brusco est\u00e1 disminuyendo a medida que las pol\u00edticas intervencionistas del gobierno han estado apoyando los mercados de valores y la moneda de China. Los temores de una fuerte devaluaci\u00f3n de la moneda se han calmado. La inclusi\u00f3n del mercado de acciones A de China junto con los programas de conexi\u00f3n de acciones y bonos del gobierno y la relajaci\u00f3n de las restricciones al capital extranjero han impulsado la confianza mundial en los mercados chinos.<\/p>\n

Las perspectivas de crecimiento a largo plazo parecen sombr\u00edas en ausencia de reformas estructurales<\/b><\/p>\n

Si bien se espera que estas medidas gubernamentales reduzcan la volatilidad de la moneda \/ mercado, no eliminan los riesgos reales para la econom\u00eda: niveles crecientes de deuda y mala asignaci\u00f3n de recursos. Con una deuda de ~ 280% del PIB, el pa\u00eds sigue expuesto a las posibilidades de una profunda crisis financiera. Y con su tasa de expansi\u00f3n del crecimiento del cr\u00e9dito que excede el crecimiento del PIB, el pa\u00eds sigue siendo vulnerable a la mala asignaci\u00f3n de recursos. La expansi\u00f3n in\u00fatil del cr\u00e9dito para fingir crecimiento satisfar\u00e1 los objetivos de crecimiento a corto plazo, pero conducir\u00e1 a una fuerte disminuci\u00f3n de la productividad y, finalmente, al crecimiento a largo plazo. El pa\u00eds necesita introducir reformas masivas y trasladar recursos a \u00e1reas productivas para poder sostener el crecimiento a largo plazo; sin embargo, esto implicar\u00eda quiebras, p\u00e9rdida de puestos de trabajo, quiebras bancarias, etc., que no ser\u00edan pol\u00edticamente populares.<\/p>\n

A pesar de los datos optimistas, las perspectivas de crecimiento a largo plazo de China parecen sombr\u00edas sin las reformas estructurales.<\/p>\n

Leer m\u00e1s sobre la moneda y los mercados de China aqu\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los optimistas datos de fabricaci\u00f3n del PMI de China para junio, publicados esta semana, apuntan a una econom\u00eda en expansi\u00f3n y una mejora de las condiciones econ\u00f3micas en el segundo trimestre. Pero, \u00bfc\u00f3mo se deben leer estos datos a la luz de las perspectivas de crecimiento de China? Perspectiva a corto plazo mejorando Preocupaciones de\u2026 Seguir leyendo \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[210],"tags":[164],"class_list":["post-2997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news-analysis","tag-stock-market-news"],"yoast_head":"\nChina's manufacturing data - is this recovery sustainable? - CityFALCON Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China's manufacturing data for June, published this week, points to improving economic conditions in Q2. 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