{"id":902,"date":"2016-06-15T07:15:27","date_gmt":"2016-06-15T07:15:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityfalcon.com\/blog\/?p=902"},"modified":"2017-10-05T11:36:26","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T11:36:26","slug":"why-im-staying-long-gbpeur-into-the-eu-referendum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/es\/investments\/why-im-staying-long-gbpeur-into-the-eu-referendum\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 me quedo largo GBP \/ EUR en el refer\u00e9ndum de la UE?"},"content":{"rendered":"<br \/>\n<style>\n.wp-caption {\nmax-width: 100% !important;\n}\n iframe {\nmax-width: 100%; hight: auto;\n}\n<\/style>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Con la votaci\u00f3n del Brexit a solo unos d\u00edas de distancia, he estado cubriendo mis posiciones de renta variable. La \u00fanica gran posici\u00f3n direccional que planeo mantener es GBP \/ EUR, donde siento que hay ventajas para aprovechar si ocurre el Brexit o no. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tenga en cuenta que no me importan los aspectos t\u00e9cnicos y solo me estoy centrando en la historia fundamental aqu\u00ed. Adem\u00e1s, existen otros factores y datos econ\u00f3micos que podr\u00edan afectar a este par de divisas. Estoy listo para ocupar mi puesto de seis meses a un a\u00f1o si es necesario. Haga su propia investigaci\u00f3n antes de ejecutar esta operaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>GBP \/ EUR ha disminuido 9% en los \u00faltimos 6 meses a 1.2555<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Es muy dif\u00edcil atribuir el declive a cualquier factor, pero la mayor\u00eda de los participantes del mercado creen que los temores del Brexit pueden haber influido en el declive de la moneda. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-903\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR.png\" alt=\"GBP-EUR\" width=\"610\" height=\"271\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR.png 610w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GBP-EUR-600x267.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 610px) 100vw, 610px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Escenario 1: ocurre el Brexit<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">En el caso del Brexit, tanto el GBP como el EUR podr\u00edan caer a\u00fan m\u00e1s frente al USD y, en una reacci\u00f3n instintiva, el GBP podr\u00eda caer m\u00e1s que el EUR, lo que significar\u00eda que inicialmente el GBP \/ EUR podr\u00eda caer. Creo que en este escenario, la UE tiene m\u00e1s que perder que el Reino Unido: un hermano mayor menos para ayudar a las econom\u00edas d\u00e9biles de la UE y la presi\u00f3n de otros pa\u00edses, especialmente Francia, para que el refer\u00e9ndum abandone la UE. Esto podr\u00eda resultar en el debilitamiento o la ruptura de la UE y, por supuesto, el EUR podr\u00eda disminuir significativamente. Debido a estos factores, espero que el GBP \/ EUR se aprecie a corto y medio plazo despu\u00e9s de la ca\u00edda inicial.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Escenario 2: Nos quedamos en la UE<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Si nos quedamos en la UE, no deber\u00eda haber mucho impacto en el par de divisas, pero puede ser que la GBP tenga un repunte de alivio y recupere parte del declive que ha tenido durante los \u00faltimos 6 meses debido a los temores del Brexit. Por tanto, existe un potencial alcista con un riesgo a la baja limitado.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>En resumen, mi tesis es que el GBP \/ EUR puede apreciarse independientemente del resultado del refer\u00e9ndum de la UE. En caso de que no se aprecie, la desventaja parece limitada. Sin embargo, acepta la volatilidad. \u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Si desea estar atento a las \u00faltimas noticias sobre Brexit, pares de divisas, etc., puede hacerlo en <\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/watchlists?assets=EURGBP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><b>CityFALCON<\/b><\/a><b>.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Con la votaci\u00f3n del Brexit a solo unos d\u00edas de distancia, he estado cubriendo mis posiciones de renta variable. La \u00fanica gran posici\u00f3n direccional que planeo ocupar ...<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/blog\/investments\/why-im-staying-long-gbpeur-into-the-eu-referendum\/\">Continuar leyendo \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":904,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[140],"class_list":["post-902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-brexit"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why I\u2019m Staying Long GBP\/EUR Into The EU Referendum?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the Brexit vote only a few days away, I\u2019ve been hedging my equity positions. 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