{"id":1584,"date":"2016-11-18T10:49:44","date_gmt":"2016-11-18T10:49:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityfalcon.com\/blog\/?p=1584"},"modified":"2017-12-19T14:31:40","modified_gmt":"2017-12-19T14:31:40","slug":"the-decline-from-demonization-provides-a-great-opportunity-for-long-term-investors-to-buy-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/fr\/investments\/the-decline-from-demonization-provides-a-great-opportunity-for-long-term-investors-to-buy-india\/","title":{"rendered":"Le d\u00e9clin de la d\u00e9mon\u00e9tisation offre une excellente opportunit\u00e9 pour les investisseurs \u00e0 long terme d'acheter l'Inde"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dans le prolongement du programme de r\u00e9forme du gouvernement indien, le PM Modi a annonc\u00e9 le 8 novembre la d\u00e9mon\u00e9tisation imm\u00e9diate de Rs. 500 & Rs.1000 billets, dans le but de r\u00e9duire l'argent noir dans le syst\u00e8me, de freiner le financement d'activit\u00e9s ill\u00e9gales et de r\u00e9soudre le probl\u00e8me des faux billets. La d\u00e9cision de d\u00e9mon\u00e9tiser ces deux d\u00e9nominations, qui constituent 86% de la valeur totale de la monnaie en circulation et estim\u00e9e \u00e0 ~ INR14tn (\u00a3 165 milliards), devrait avoir des implications majeures pour l'\u00e9conomie parall\u00e8le de l'Inde. Cette d\u00e9cision a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec un autre \u00e9v\u00e9nement historique - les r\u00e9sultats de l'\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine, au cours de laquelle Trump a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9clar\u00e9 pr\u00e9sident.<\/p>\n

Qu'est-ce qui anime les march\u00e9s indiens depuis le 9 novembre?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le 9 novembre, les march\u00e9s asiatiques ont chut\u00e9 en r\u00e9action \u00e0 une victoire inattendue de Trump, alors qu'ils \u00e9taient aux prises avec l'incertitude pos\u00e9e par ses politiques \u00e0 l'\u00e9gard des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents et son impact sur le commerce et l'\u00e9conomie et l'app\u00e9tit pour le risque mondial a diminu\u00e9, entra\u00eenant des flux massifs de capitaux vers des valeurs refuges. Cependant, pour les march\u00e9s indiens, la volatilit\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 accrue en raison de la d\u00e9mon\u00e9tisation qui a conduit \u00e0 une baisse plus marqu\u00e9e des march\u00e9s indiens par rapport aux autres march\u00e9s asiatiques. BSE Sensex a ouvert environ 1600 points (6%) en moins, mais s'est r\u00e9tabli plus tard.<\/p>\n

\"Source:<\/a>

Source: Google Finance<\/p><\/div>\n

Les march\u00e9s ont subi une correction depuis l'annonce, principalement sous l'effet de l'immobilier, de la consommation et des actions de petites et moyennes capitalisations. Pour le secteur immobilier, qui est connu pour organiser des transactions en esp\u00e8ces de grande ampleur, les prix devraient baisser \u00e0 mesure que les prix gonfl\u00e9s des terrains et des logements se r\u00e9adapteront \u00e0 une d\u00e9couverte de prix plus efficace pour les vrais acheteurs. Les march\u00e9s ont \u00e9galement r\u00e9agi \u00e0 une baisse attendue de la demande de consommation du secteur de la vente au d\u00e9tail haut de gamme, pour les articles \u00e0 gros prix qui incluent les produits blancs, les automobiles, les biens, les pierres pr\u00e9cieuses et les bijoux, ainsi que la baisse de la consommation du secteur rural o\u00f9 la majorit\u00e9 des transactions sont effectu\u00e9es. effectu\u00e9e en esp\u00e8ces. Les actions de taille moyenne et de petite taille ont \u00e9galement subi une baisse, car la plupart de ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u00e9pendent fortement des liquidit\u00e9s pour leurs op\u00e9rations quotidiennes. Une partie de la baisse pourrait \u00e9galement \u00eatre attribu\u00e9e \u00e0 des ventes de panique, les investisseurs se pr\u00e9cipitant pour vendre des actions pour surmonter la crise de liquidit\u00e9 inattendue.<\/p>\n

Cette crise \u00e0 court terme pr\u00e9sente cependant une bonne opportunit\u00e9 d'achat \u00e0 long terme que les investisseurs peuvent exploiter. Pour comprendre l'histoire d\u00e9taill\u00e9e des macros, jetez un \u0153il \u00e0 notre article de septembre 2016 - Pourquoi et comment investir en Inde<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Quel est l'impact de la d\u00e9mon\u00e9tisation sur les diff\u00e9rents secteurs?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les gagnants: <\/strong>Le secteur bancaire a \u00e9t\u00e9 clairement gagnant. L'afflux accru de liquidit\u00e9s provenant des d\u00e9p\u00f4ts am\u00e9liorera le CASA, abaissera les taux de d\u00e9p\u00f4t bancaire et donnera aux banques un acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des sources de fonds bon march\u00e9. Cela entra\u00eenera \u00e9galement une baisse des taux de pr\u00eat, ce qui pourrait stimuler la demande de cr\u00e9dit. Les banques PSU devraient en b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier davantage que les banques priv\u00e9es en raison des r\u00e9seaux de succursales \/ franchises de d\u00e9tail plus importants (SBI). Financement automobile Les NBFC, les IMF et les pr\u00eateurs d'or (Mahindra Finance, Muthoot Finance, Chola Investments, Mannapuram, etc.) devraient cependant \u00eatre temporairement affect\u00e9s n\u00e9gativement car ils effectuent principalement des transactions en esp\u00e8ces.<\/p>\n

S&P BSE Bankex<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"(Source<\/a>

(Source de l'image: Google Finance)<\/p><\/div>\n

Outre les banques, le secteur de la technologie pourrait \u00eatre un autre b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaire en raison d'un changement dans les habitudes de d\u00e9penses et de l'aspiration \u00e0 long terme des particuliers et des entreprises \u00e0 se passer de liquidit\u00e9s. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de technologie de pointe et de commerce \u00e9lectronique, qui comprennent des fournisseurs de services de passerelle de paiement (service de passerelle de paiement PayUbiz), des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de cartes et des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de vente au d\u00e9tail en ligne pourraient b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de cette d\u00e9cision. Les entreprises de portefeuille mobile \/ start-up telles que One97 Communications Ltd., Mobikwik Systems, Oxigen Services, etc. b\u00e9n\u00e9ficieront \u00e9galement du passage des paiements en esp\u00e8ces aux paiements num\u00e9riques.<\/p>\n

Les perdants: <\/strong>Cependant, certains secteurs doivent \u00eatre clairement \u00e9vit\u00e9s. Le secteur immobilier, subira une correction majeure et conduira \u00e0 une r\u00e9\u00e9valuation (lire d\u00e9valuation) des transactions immobili\u00e8res \/ inventaire. Recherchez des entreprises dot\u00e9es d'une meilleure gouvernance d'entreprise dans le secteur pour des gains \u00e0 long terme. Les industries connexes comme la construction seront durement touch\u00e9es alors que les entreprises peinent \u00e0 payer les ouvriers \u00e0 salaire journalier. Le ciment, qui est principalement utilis\u00e9 pour la construction de logements, sera \u00e9galement confront\u00e9 \u00e0 la baisse de la demande en immobilier organis\u00e9 (Ambuja Cements)<\/p>\n

Le secteur de la consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire est un autre perdant. La consommation d'or et de bijoux, premier b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaire des transactions en monnaie noire, sera la plus touch\u00e9e (TBZ). On s'attend \u00e9galement \u00e0 ce que les gens r\u00e9duisent leurs investissements dans des biens durables comme l'\u00e9lectronique grand public, les automobiles et les articles de luxe. Les ventes de cigarettes, principalement effectu\u00e9es en esp\u00e8ces, en souffriront \u00e9galement (ITC), les stocks de produits alimentaires et de boissons comme Coffee Day, les produits de grande consommation comme HUL sont \u00e9galement susceptibles d'\u00eatre affect\u00e9s, mais la fid\u00e9lit\u00e9 des clients pourrait peut-\u00eatre amortir leur chute.<\/p>\n

Certains des grands perdants des ADR depuis la d\u00e9mon\u00e9tisation sont \u00e9num\u00e9r\u00e9s ci-dessous:<\/p>\n

Moteurs Tata (<\/a>TTM<\/a>)<\/a><\/p>\n

\"(Source<\/a>

(Source de l'image: Google Finance)<\/p><\/div>\n

ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN)<\/a><\/p>\n

\"(Source<\/a>

(Source de l'image: Google Finance)<\/p><\/div>\n

HDFC Bank Ltd. (<\/a>HDB<\/a>)<\/a><\/p>\n

\"(Source<\/a>

(Source de l'image: Google Finance)<\/p><\/div>\n

La situation \u00e0 long terme semble rose malgr\u00e9 le hoquet actuel<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cette \u00e9tape, bien plus importante que la r\u00e9forme de la TPS, entra\u00eenera une volatilit\u00e9 temporaire sur le march\u00e9 et pourrait \u00eatre n\u00e9gative pour l'\u00e9conomie \u00e0 court terme en tant que ralentissement de la vitesse de la demande des entreprises et de la consommation (principalement en raison de la perte de deviendra sans valeur) pourrait cr\u00e9er une baisse temporaire du PIB (la monnaie noire est estim\u00e9e \u00e0 ~ 10% du PIB). Cependant, cela entra\u00eenera une am\u00e9lioration de la transparence et de la conformit\u00e9 fiscale, ce qui entra\u00eenera des avantages structurels \u00e0 long terme tels qu'une meilleure inclusion financi\u00e8re et une augmentation de la productivit\u00e9 nationale. Cela paiera les investisseurs pour voir la for\u00eat pour les arbres, car les r\u00e9formes li\u00e9es \u00e0 la corruption et aux taxes (TPS) aideront \u00e0 am\u00e9liorer l'image de l'Inde, conduiront \u00e0 une augmentation des notes et stimuleront les investissements mondiaux \u00e0 long terme. Les investisseurs peuvent \u00e9galement exploiter la volatilit\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme en choisissant des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s fondamentalement fortes \u00e0 des prix raisonnables. Inde Les investisseurs devraient \u00e9viter ces secteurs pour l'instant: l'immobilier, les NBFC, la construction, le ciment et la consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire. Le moolah r\u00e9side dans les secteurs bancaires et technologiques<\/p>\n

Les investisseurs \u00e9trangers ne sont pas enti\u00e8rement exclus de l'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 ces rendements potentiels, car les ADR, les GDR, les ETF et les fonds communs de placement permettent d'investir dans des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s indiennes de l'\u00e9tranger, sur de nombreux march\u00e9s \u00e0 travers le monde. Vous pouvez suivre en temps r\u00e9el des actualit\u00e9s compl\u00e8tes et personnalis\u00e9es pour l'Indien ADR<\/a> sur CityFALCON.<\/p>\n

Remarque:<\/em><\/strong> Je n'ai pas l'intention de discuter des opinions politiques au sujet de la d\u00e9mon\u00e9tisation. Cet article est \u00e9crit uniquement pour discuter de mon point de vue sur l'impact \u00e9conomique de la d\u00e9mon\u00e9tisation et des id\u00e9es d'investissement associ\u00e9es dans une perspective boursi\u00e8re. <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dans le prolongement du programme de r\u00e9forme du gouvernement indien, le Premier ministre Modi a annonc\u00e9 le 8 novembre la d\u00e9mon\u00e9tisation imm\u00e9diate de Rs. 500 & Rs.1000 notes, dans le but de r\u00e9duire l'argent noir dans le syst\u00e8me, de freiner le financement d'activit\u00e9s ill\u00e9gales et de lutter contre\u2026 Continuer la lecture \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[51,164],"class_list":["post-1584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-markets","tag-stock-market-news"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Decline from Demonetisation Provides a Great Opportunity for Long term Investors to Buy India<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In continuation to the Indian Government\u2019s reform agenda, PM Modi on November 8, announced immediate demonetisation of Rs. 500 & Rs.1000 notes, in a move to reduce black money in the system, curb funding of illegal activities and address the problem of counterfeit notes.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/blog\/investments\/the-decline-from-demonization-provides-a-great-opportunity-for-long-term-investors-to-buy-india\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Decline from Demonetisation Provides a Great Opportunity for Long term Investors to Buy India\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In continuation to the Indian 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