{"id":1617,"date":"2016-12-12T15:18:13","date_gmt":"2016-12-12T15:18:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityfalcon.com\/blog\/?p=1617"},"modified":"2018-03-14T12:26:24","modified_gmt":"2018-03-14T12:26:24","slug":"why-the-apple-stock-is-the-perfect-short-for-your-tech-portfolio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/fr\/investments\/why-the-apple-stock-is-the-perfect-short-for-your-tech-portfolio\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi Apple Stock est le short parfait pour votre portefeuille technologique"},"content":{"rendered":"<br \/>\n<style>\n.wp-caption {\nmax-width: 100% !important;\n}\n iframe {\nmax-width: 100%; hight: auto;\n}\n<\/style>\n<h2><b>Sommaire:<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>2016 a \u00e9t\u00e9 une ann\u00e9e folle sur les fronts g\u00e9opolitiques et autres;<\/li>\n<li>Apple a eu du mal \u00e0 innover au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es par rapport aux autres entreprises technologiques telles que Facebook, Google, Amazon et Tesla;<\/li>\n<li>Si votre portefeuille comprend des actions technologiques, le shorting d&#039;Apple peut offrir une protection \u00e0 la baisse \u00e0 votre portefeuille si et quand le march\u00e9 se corrige;<\/li>\n<li>Vous devez \u00eatre prudent lorsque vous vendez des actions, mais il est peu probable que quiconque cherche \u00e0 acheter Apple avec une capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de $600bn et une EV de $460bn;<\/li>\n<li>L&#039;iPhone repr\u00e9sente 60% + des revenus d&#039;Apple. La saturation du march\u00e9 des smartphones et l&#039;allongement des cycles de remplacement des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones posent un d\u00e9fi aux perspectives de croissance d&#039;Apple;<\/li>\n<li>En tant qu&#039;ancien employ\u00e9 de Nokia et Skype, j&#039;ai vu comment les entreprises peuvent \u00e9chouer \u00e0 partir de positions tr\u00e8s fortes en raison d&#039;un leadership faible et du peu d&#039;innovation;<\/li>\n<li>Au prix de $112, Apple se n\u00e9gocie \u00e0 un consensus P \/ E 2017 de 11 fois. En excluant le gros solde en esp\u00e8ces du prix, l&#039;action se n\u00e9gocie \u00e0 un P \/ E de 8,5 fois. L&#039;action peut sembler bon march\u00e9 sur la base de ces multiples mais avec sa m\u00e9ga capitalisation boursi\u00e8re, plusieurs investisseurs institutionnels auraient d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteint leur limite d&#039;achats dans l&#039;action;<\/li>\n<li>Je couvrirai ma position vendeur s&#039;ils commencent \u00e0 innover ou si les \u00c9tats-Unis leur accordent un cong\u00e9 fiscal ou une pause pour ramener l&#039;argent \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9tranger;<\/li>\n<li>Vous pouvez suivre en temps r\u00e9el des histoires pertinentes et personnalis\u00e9es pour Apple et d&#039;autres entreprises technologiques <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/watchlists?assets=FB,AAPL,AMZN,TSLA,GOOG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ici<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Les march\u00e9s sont en forte hausse en 2016 malgr\u00e9 les incertitudes <\/b><\/h2>\n<p>2016 a \u00e9t\u00e9 une ann\u00e9e pour le moins int\u00e9ressante, et au milieu de toutes les incertitudes, la plupart des march\u00e9s ont augment\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re significative - peut-\u00eatre en raison d&#039;un exc\u00e8s de liquidit\u00e9, d&#039;une attente de hausse des taux d&#039;int\u00e9r\u00eat faible ou nulle. Les 7 \u00e0 8 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 formidables pour la plupart des investisseurs comme moi, mais je suis nerveuse maintenant. Par cons\u00e9quent, au lieu de conserver un portefeuille long uniquement, ce que j&#039;ai fait ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, je cherche maintenant \u00e0 couvrir mon portefeuille en ajoutant des actions que je pense sur\u00e9valu\u00e9es. L&#039;une de ces actions est Apple, qui \u00e0 l&#039;avenir, je crois, fera face \u00e0 un d\u00e9tournement important de sa trajectoire de croissance de plus d&#039;une d\u00e9cennie.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1618\" style=\"width: 703px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/1-apple-stock-article.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1618\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-1618 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/1-apple-stock-article.png\" width=\"693\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/1-apple-stock-article.png 693w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/1-apple-stock-article-300x130.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/1-apple-stock-article-600x260.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 693px) 100vw, 693px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1618\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Google Finance<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><b>Apple a \u00e9t\u00e9 assez instable au cours de la derni\u00e8re ann\u00e9e<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Le stock a diminu\u00e9 de 7% au cours de la derni\u00e8re ann\u00e9e malgr\u00e9 un march\u00e9 boursier solide. Les investisseurs ont peut-\u00eatre d\u00e9j\u00e0 sanctionn\u00e9 l&#039;action pour son manque d&#039;innovation et ses perspectives de croissance en baisse.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1619\" style=\"width: 703px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/2-apple-stock-article.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1619\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-1619 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/2-apple-stock-article.png\" width=\"693\" height=\"301\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/2-apple-stock-article.png 693w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/2-apple-stock-article-300x130.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/2-apple-stock-article-600x261.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 693px) 100vw, 693px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1619\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Google Finance<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><b>Les ventes et les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices annuels d&#039;Apple ont diminu\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois en 15 ans au cours de l&#039;exercice 2016<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Il a signal\u00e9 trois baisses trimestrielles cons\u00e9cutives au cours de l&#039;exercice 2016, le quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2016 faisant \u00e9tat d&#039;une baisse de 9,8% des ventes et de 23% des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices. La baisse des ventes est principalement due au ralentissement des ventes d&#039;iPhone (baisse de 13% sur un an), qui contribuent \u00e0 2\/3 du chiffre d&#039;affaires total de l&#039;entreprise. Ses ventes d&#039;iPhone ont diminu\u00e9 malgr\u00e9 le lancement de l&#039;iPhone 7 en septembre et le coup de pouce qu&#039;il a re\u00e7u de la d\u00e9b\u00e2cle du Galaxy Note 7 de Samsung.<\/p>\n<p>La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 confront\u00e9e \u00e0 des vents contraires de la Chine, l&#039;un des march\u00e9s d&#039;Apple \u00e0 la croissance la plus rapide. La concurrence croissante des fabricants locaux a eu un impact sur les volumes, tandis que les probl\u00e8mes de r\u00e9glementation dans le pays ont un impact sur les revenus du segment des services d&#039;Apple.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1620\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/3-apple-stock-article.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1620\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1620\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/3-apple-stock-article.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/3-apple-stock-article.png 600w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/3-apple-stock-article-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1620\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Apple Form 10-K pour l&#039;exercice clos le 24 septembre 2016<\/p><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\">\n.tg  {border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:0;border-color:#ccc;}\n.tg td{font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:14px;padding:10px 5px;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;overflow:hidden;word-break:normal;border-color:#ccc;color:#333;background-color:#fff;}\n.tg th{font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:normal;padding:10px 5px;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;overflow:hidden;word-break:normal;border-color:#ccc;color:#333;background-color:#f0f0f0;}\n@media screen and (max-width: 767px) {.tg {width: auto !important;}.tg col {width: auto !important;}.tg-wrap {overflow-x: auto;-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"tg-wrap\">\n<table class=\"tg\">\n<tr>\n<td><b>Revenus ($bn)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>2014<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>2015<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>2016<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>2016 %<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>iPhone<\/b><\/td>\n<td>102<\/td>\n<td>155<\/td>\n<td>136<\/td>\n<td>63.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>iPad<\/b><\/td>\n<td>30<\/td>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td>21<\/td>\n<td>9.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Mac<\/b><\/td>\n<td>24<\/td>\n<td>25<\/td>\n<td>23<\/td>\n<td>10.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Prestations de service<\/b><\/td>\n<td>18<\/td>\n<td>20<\/td>\n<td>24<\/td>\n<td>11.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Autres produits<\/b><\/td>\n<td>8<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<td>5.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Total<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>182<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>233<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>215<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>100.0%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Apple Form 10-K pour l&#039;exercice clos le 24 septembre 2016<\/p>\n<h2><b>Apple a \u00e9t\u00e9 le moins innovant parmi les actions technologiques cl\u00e9s<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Alors que nous entendons parler de l&#039;intelligence artificielle, des services cloud, des panneaux solaires, etc. de la part d&#039;entreprises technologiques innovantes telles que Facebook, Amazon et Google, les seules innovations r\u00e9centes dont Apple peut parler sont Apple Watch et Apple Pay. L&#039;Apple Watch, qui, malgr\u00e9 ses \u00abperformances de ventes exceptionnelles\u00bb au cours de l&#039;exercice 2016, a \u00e9t\u00e9 regroup\u00e9e avec d&#039;autres produits en raison de sa faible contribution au g\u00e2teau des revenus d&#039;Apple. Le manque d&#039;innovation a entra\u00een\u00e9 une d\u00e9pendance excessive \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9gard de son produit phare, 63% des revenus d&#039;Apple provenant de l&#039;iPhone.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1621\" style=\"width: 704px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/4-apple-stock-article.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1621\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"wp-image-1621 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/4-apple-stock-article.png\" width=\"694\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/4-apple-stock-article.png 694w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/4-apple-stock-article-300x130.png 300w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/4-apple-stock-article-600x259.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 694px) 100vw, 694px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1621\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Google Finance<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><b>Le cycle de remplacement du t\u00e9l\u00e9phone aura un impact important sur l&#039;entreprise<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Un changement dans la composition des consommateurs motiv\u00e9 par une p\u00e9n\u00e9tration croissante sur les march\u00e9s \u00e0 faible revenu, la r\u00e9duction des mises \u00e0 jour technologiques, les fournisseurs de services de communication qui d\u00e9saccentuent les mises \u00e0 niveau gratuites dans leurs plans marketing contribuent tous \u00e0 une augmentation du cycle de remplacement des smartphones. Le cycle de remplacement moyen en 2013, comme le montre le graphique, \u00e9tait d&#039;environ 2 ans en 2013. Il devrait passer \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 3 ans \u00e0 l&#039;avenir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/5-apple-stock-article.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 100%; height: auto;\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1622 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.cityfalcon.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/5-apple-stock-article.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"519\" height=\"385\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/5-apple-stock-article.png 519w, https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/5-apple-stock-article-300x223.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 519px) 100vw, 519px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Selon un rapport de Gartner, le march\u00e9 des smartphones est en train de saturer - la croissance en 2016 ne devrait \u00eatre que de 7% contre une croissance de 14,4% en 2015.<\/p>\n<p>La diminution du nombre de premiers acheteurs ainsi que l&#039;allongement des cycles de remplacement auront un impact suppl\u00e9mentaire sur les volumes de ventes d&#039;Apple \u00e0 l&#039;avenir.<\/p>\n<h2><b>Sommaire<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Les ventes de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 dans ses principaux segments - iPhone, iPad et Mac sont en baisse. Son segment des services, en croissance rapide, amortit les baisses de revenus d&#039;Apple sur d&#039;autres segments, mais Apple devra recommencer \u00e0 innover pour garder les investisseurs int\u00e9ress\u00e9s!<\/p>\n<p>2017 pourrait bien \u00eatre un point d&#039;inflexion pour Apple avec l&#039;actualisation des produits et peut-\u00eatre de nouveaux produits passionnants, mais pour l&#039;instant, je manque d&#039;Apple pour couvrir mon portefeuille technologique pendant les incertitudes actuelles au niveau macro.<\/p>\n<p>Vous pouvez suivre en temps r\u00e9el des histoires pertinentes et personnalis\u00e9es pour Apple et d&#039;autres entreprises technologiques <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/watchlists?assets=FB,AAPL,AMZN,TSLA,GOOG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ici<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b><i>A propos de l&#039;auteur<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><i>Ruzbeh Bacha est le fondateur et PDG de <\/i><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityfalcon.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CityFALCON<\/a><i>. Il investit et n\u00e9gocie sur les march\u00e9s depuis 15 ans, est comptable qualifi\u00e9 et titulaire d&#039;un MBA de l&#039;Universit\u00e9 d&#039;Oxford.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>R\u00e9sum\u00e9: 2016 a \u00e9t\u00e9 une ann\u00e9e folle sur les fronts g\u00e9opolitiques et autres; Apple a eu du mal \u00e0 innover au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es par rapport aux autres entreprises technologiques telles que Facebook, Google, Amazon et Tesla; Si votre portefeuille comprend la technologie\u2026 <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cityfalcon.ai\/blog\/fr\/investments\/why-the-apple-stock-is-the-perfect-short-for-your-tech-portfolio\/\">Continuer la lecture \u2192<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[121,34,52,50],"class_list":["post-1617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-analysis","tag-apple","tag-portfolio","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why the Apple Stock is the Perfect Short for Your Tech Portfolio<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2016 has been an interesting year to say the least, and amidst all the uncertainties, most markets have gone up significantly - maybe due to...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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